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Loes van Dijk

The Beginning of the End of the Fossil Fuel Era: COP28 Global Stocktake

Summary
  • Nearly 200 Parties agreed on a landmark Global Stocktake decision under the Paris Agreement, emphasising a just transition away from fossil fuels.

  • The agreement includes commitments such as tripling renewable energy by 2030, reducing coal power, and addressing emissions in a nationally determined manner.

  • Critics argue that the agreement, while a positive step, lacks specificity, targets, and climate finance support, representing a missed opportunity aligned with the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.


Image of an oil refinery with smoke coming out of several pipes. It is in stark contrast with the clear blue sky above the refinery.


In the early hours of 13 December, negotiators from almost 200 Parties came to an agreement that has been heralded as ‘the beginning of the end’ for fossil fuels. The agreement was part of the ‘Global Stocktake’, which is a process set up under the Paris Agreement. As per the Paris Agreement, every 5 years, its Parties have to evaluate their collective progress towards the Paris Agreement goals.

 

The final relevant wording the parties managed to agree to can be found in Article 28 of the global stocktake decision, which also contains commitments to tripling renewable energy by 2030, phasing-down of unabated coal power, and accelerating efforts to reduce CO2, methane, and transport emissions, among others.

 

On the topic of fossil fuels, the text reads that the Conference of the Parties “calls on Parties to contribute […] in a nationally determined manner […]” to transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade […]”

 

Unpacking this section, it is clear that it will apply differently to every country. Each country will have to update its nationally determined contributions that were first formulated under the Paris Agreement. However, the nationally determined contributions now have to be updated to reflect each country’s strategy and targets regarding the ‘transitioning away’ from fossil fuels.

 

The reference to fossil fuels in the global stocktake decision is the first time that they have been explicitly included in any UN Climate negotiations since their commencement in 1972 at the United Nations Conference on Human Environment.

 

The participating countries at COP28 agreed to the text of the global stocktake decision, despite oil cartel Opec’s efforts to derail negotiations. In leaked letters, Opec had called upon oil states to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy, ie fossil fuels, rather than emissions”.

 

By addressing fossil fuels rather than mere emissions, the global stocktake decision is still a small win. Any commitment to emissions reductions is even more prone to loopholes than the current agreed form of the text.

 

Nevertheless, the wording has been widely criticised for being vague and for only covering the ‘bare minimum’ that was actually needed many years ago. The text fails to refer to a phase-out of fossil fuels, and is not supported by any targets or climate finance supports. As such, COP28 has been a “missed opportunity” and ran “counter to the core goals laid down in the 2015 Paris climate agreement”.   

 

Celebrating the global stocktake decision as a landmark deal is not just a reflection of past shortcomings but a stark testament to why we need to call for the immediate halt of the burning of coal, oil, and gas.

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